Various currency market forecasts for the ruble and the Singapore dollar
German Raiffeisenbank experts expect the dollar to rise against the ruble, and the American bank Goldman Sachs advises selling the Singapore dollar to avoid losses. These are one of the latest forecasts for currency growth.
What are the forecasts for the growth of currencies from Raiffeisenbank?
The value of the American currency in relation to the Russian will grow only under two conditions. First, if the price of oil remains at around $ 60 per barrel. Secondly, if the Central Bank of the Russian Federation extends the regulatory policy aimed at acquiring currency for the Ministry of Finance within the framework of the budget rule. In this case, the growth of the dollar to the ruble by 75 points should be expected.
Analysts at Raiffeisenbank also note that the current profitability of operations with federal loan bonds is promising. This may convince investors to take risks due to the depreciation of the ruble. It is also expected that OFZ will fall in price after the Bank of Russia raises the key rate. There is every reason to believe that the main bank of the Russian Federation in 2019 will take such a step more than once. In 2018, the rate has already risen several times: up to 7.25% in summer, and another 0.50% – in December. The urge for this was the general ruble depreciation of the ruble and the Central Bank’s attempts to protect the currency from inflation caused by the increase in VAT.
Thus, the purchase of federal bonds in current positions does not make sense. If investors still have an interest in them, then bank analysts advise to open only short positions.
Recommendations of the American Bank to work with the Singapore dollar
Representatives of Goldman Sachs advise selling the Singapore dollar. They suggest that the currency will suffer because of the consequences of a future meeting of the Central Bank of the country. Now the money market rate in Singapore is about 1.45%. This is above the average range of the official interest rate of the central bank, which indicates the market’s lack of confidence in the regulator’s rate reduction at the meeting held in April 2019.
In addition, the American bank reduced the personal forecast of the growth of Singapore’s gross domestic product in the new year to 2.2%. The reason has traditionally become the total slip of the global economy and the aggravation of financial relations in the world.
