Global economic risks are connected with the USA, China and Europe
The global economy has entered its most difficult period – experts keep saying this. The United States is in conflict with China, but confrontation is leading to warming, the end of confrontation can be the most difficult development scenario. The world is divided into states that support the United States (for example, EU countries) and sanctioning powers (Iran, Russia, and others). To whom, as a result, will China join or become engaged in its own issues, creating a third force in Kei-southeast Asia?
2019 will give answers.
Politicians around the world are perplexed by the solution of momentary crises. At the same time, they do not see threats from which serious problems may arise in the future. Decision on raising the tax rates of the United States is a typical example of solutions for today. On the other hand, the trade war between China and the United States: both states want good for themselves. Moreover, the crises that may arise in the near future, Washington and Beijing are trying not to notice.
In particular, the decline in sales of giant Apple in China and, as a result, the fall in corporate shares, is the result of a confrontation that both countries hardly wanted.
Political problems are brewing in the EU. In May 2019, elections to the European Parliament will take place, in which. Euro-skeptics, both right and left, are expected to pass. It was noted earlier more than once that parties that blamed Brussels for problems with their economies received support in the EU countries. Now, their popularity is increasing due to populist promises to ignore the rules and laws of the European Union. Can this fact lead to other exits from the supranational entity? It is still too early to judge.
Risks of the global economy: Trump and others
US President Donald Trump showed himself as a man trying to protect the domestic market of the state from foreign interventions. So far, the results of its activities look impressive. The national currency grows; unemployment has stopped at an average of 4%. There are many vacancies, which speaks of lobbying for domestic production. Nevertheless, Trump is not satisfied with everything. There is no threat of impeachment, but political volatility in the country is consistently high. Shocks can expect a country’s economy when the dollar going uphill gradually begins to fall, which is quite natural.
In addition, analysts predict a slowdown in the development of innovation. The banking sector will continue to carry out activities against cross-border financial and cryptocurrency. An example of a thesis can serve revoked licenses from 5 Russian forex brokers. These structures stood above the states, had Cyprus registration and practically did not pay taxes. The software of these organizations could allow cross-border transfers within the system. The same can be said about the concerns of the Central Bank by credit institutions: they won a niche from banks in microcredit and cash transfers.
Traditionally, analysts talk about political crises associated with the release of the UK from the EU. Most likely, the year 2019 will become a time when EU laws will no longer be valid in Britain. UK companies that earned profits in euros and dollars may not be able to count profits due to political “hostilities” in which they are not interested.
