In 2019, Russia is waiting for fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate
Over the past 5 years, Russians have become accustomed to the constant fluctuations of the ruble exchange rate. American and European sanctions, changes in the price of energy, a protracted economic crisis – all these problems have a negative impact on the stability of the national currency. However, the ruble in recent years has not only fallen but also grew, especially when there was a positive trend in hydrocarbon prices. 2019 will also bring ups and downs of the national currency. How to protect against them and not lose on inflation?
How to protect yourself from the next fluctuations of the ruble exchange rate
The main reason for the fall of the ruble exchange rate in 2019, Moody’s analysts call the outflow of capital from the Russian Federation. Moreover, experts are confident that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will not artificially hold the course by selling gold and foreign exchange reserves, but will allow the ruble to fall. However, the policy of non-deterrence of the national currency may lead to its steady growth.
How not to lose your money because of the next fluctuations? Experts predict a traditional way out – investment in currencies. First of all, we are talking about Swiss francs. Investing in dollars is also a good solution, although there are more risks, given the absence of a deal between the US and China (although the parties state that they are close to an agreement).
At the same time, it is better to abandon the acquisition of the yuan and the euro. Even if the States and China make a deal, it does not guarantee the stability of the Chinese currency. The economy of the Middle Kingdom has been slowing down for the last 5 years, and there is a risk that it will go into recession if the next global financial crisis sets in. The United States and Switzerland are significantly less at risk.
As for the euro, investing in this currency is also dangerous. Firstly, because of Brexit. Experts are still refraining from long-term forecasts of the impact of a UK exit from the EU on the EU economy. The risks, in this case, are extremely high. Add here and the slowdown in economic growth “locomotive” of the EU – Germany. Automakers are already publishing negative reports, and opposition forces are calling on the government to take any possible measures to prevent a recession in the country.
Analysts are reminiscent of risk diversification. You should not keep all your savings in any one currency. In addition, experts do not recommend transferring all money to foreign currency. Over the past 1.5 months, the ruble has shown quite serious growth, and it is possible that the fall will not be deafening. Experts consider the current exchange rate of the national currency to be fair.
Experts believe that the collapse of the ruble can be followed only in two cases. Either the energy market will survive another fall with Brent oil falling to $ 55, or the world community will approve serious economic sanctions against the EU. “Black gold” is still showing a small but steady growth, and given the current market situation, one can hardly expect a collapse. There is also no news regarding the introduction of new sanctions. Therefore, in the short term, to expect a sharp depreciation of the ruble is not worth it. But the volatility of the currency will remain high, and it will be sensitive to various news, especially to negative.
