Forecasts for global economic development do not give cause for optimism
Trade wars, reduction, lack of growth – this is how the global economy can be described now. Development indicators have passed the peak, production volumes fall, problems in various markets are observed throughout the world.
What happens in the international markets of different industries?
As of February 2019, it can be stated that the forecasts of financial experts were not justified. They assumed that the limit of the global economy would be reflected in high oil prices and its shortage. It happened the other way around. There is a total reduction in the production of finished goods, in particular, auto and telephones, there is a low cost of raw materials and profitability of commodities.
As examples of such phenomena, the following examples can be cited:
● In China, in 2018, sales of motor cars fell by almost 3%. Analysts believe that the reduction will last in 2019, which indicates problems with the availability of technology.
● Saudi Arabia announced its intention to reduce oil production to 800 thousand barrels per day in order to provoke the increase in its price. The current cost of the valuable resource is extremely low.
● Coal mining in Australia is on the verge of collapse. All because of innovative renewable energy sources
The oppressive position of world finance is also affected by US trade policy. History shows that high tariffs have repeatedly become the answer to the reduction in the production of food and industrial goods per capita. However, they also lead to global catastrophes (the Great Depression, American Civil War).
The current rhetoric of Donald Trump and his actions speak about the big problems with the availability of both goods and services for the majority of the population. And the high duties of the States prove that the global economy approaches the limit of its growth, or it has already passed.
Specific forecasts of development of the global economy
In 2019, financial markets will suffer from excessive volatility, chaotic trading in stocks, volatile interest rates and other problems. For many banks, the sad prospect of bankruptcy will loom.
China considered the locomotive of global economic growth, will also slowdown in its development. This happens now. The coal industry in the country falls due to low profitability, and the mines are closed. Because of this, the state authorities turn to expensive imported energy sources. As of 2019, China is the main importer of coal, oil and natural gas in the world. This dependence on resources in the future may adversely affect its economy.
The low price of oil threatens political and financial crises to its main exporters – Venezuela, where a military coup is planned, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria.
In addition, the risk of outbreaks increases in poor countries, which can then spread beyond their borders. It can at least not be excluded a scenario in which important international organizations will collapse – the EU, WTO and IMF.
