New US sanctions may be targeted against cyber attacks
Published a new version of the bill on the next US sanctions against Russia. The reason is the intervention of the Russian Federation on the course of elections in democratic countries, cybernetic threats and the annexation of a part of the territory of Ukraine.
The objects of sanctions can serve as major players in international markets, as well as their beneficiaries.
An important part of the new measures is related to restrictions on new issues of the Russian government debt. Americans want to ban to deal with these securities. The list of prohibited assets can get bonds, swaps and other financial instruments, whose issuers are the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
In order for this document to gain the status of a law, a vote by the two chambers of Congress and the signature of the president are necessary. Only after that can Trump take actions related to the prohibition of investments in new financial instruments issued three months after the law entered into force.
New US Sanctions Affect LNG Market
US senators want to limit the actions of players who invest in Russian LNG projects outside the country’s borders. These sanctions are associated only with large investors (from a million dollars). Also, America will try to hinder the activities of projects whose value will increase to $ 5 million over the next six months. The bill also directed against companies and individuals associated with oil development in Russia.
Analysts argue that the adoption of sanctions will have a negative impact on the currency and stock markets. The RTS index in a short time will drop by 15-20%. The same expects the ruble – up to 15% fall. Federal loan bonds OFZ will fall in price by 2%. In such circumstances, the Central Bank will have to raise the key rate by 2-3%.
The projected ruble exchange rate after the imposition of sanctions is 75-80 rubles / $. And the fuel and energy sector will be the most affected industry in the new conditions. Also, raw materials exports, which, as we know, is the basis of the economy of the Russian Federation, will not be in the best conditions.
This scenario implies a recession through stagnation. According to experts, the Russian stock market will fall by 5% in a few days. Due to the problems that have arisen for oil and gas companies, the Moscow Exchange index will also decline.
Experts point out that the greatest risks will be associated with liquefied gas bunker terminal projects on the Baltic coast. It is also possible to suspend the construction of tankers for Yamal LNG. Finally, restrictions will arise around Nord Stream 2.
As you can see, America has planned pinpoint strikes on Russian companies that represent the greatest competitive risks for it. Analysts argue that the likelihood of introducing a new package of sanctions is small, but the negative version of the unfolding of events should also be taken into account in the forecasts.
